It’s not that Air Force finds itself in rare air as it heads into the second quarter of its season Friday and Saturday at AIC, it’s just that it usually takes longer to arrive at this destination.
The Falcons typically rise to the top of the Atlantic Hockey Conference standings in the second half of the season, but there they are in first place a week before the turkeys have been carved, three points ahead of Army West Point and Niagara, teams they have won three of four games against already.
As recently as Oct. 25 the previous paragraph would have been fodder for a hockey-crazed fantasy. After a 2-0 home shutout at the hands of Niagara, the second game in a row the Falcons had been blanked, their record stood at 1-4.
That came on the heels of a Jekyll and Hyde split at Canisius and a near-disastrous opening weekend that saw losses to Denver and Colorado College by a combined 10-2.
The offense was concentrated on a quartet of seniors, and collectively the Falcons were allowing four goals per game, surprising given they have a senior goaltender on the Mike Richter Award watch list.
Compounding matters, the Falcons went into the rematch against Niagara on Oct. 26 without three important seniors due to injury – forwards Kyle Haak and Matt Serratore and defenseman Matt Koch. They found a way to win 2-1 and haven’t looked back, starting a five-game win streak – their longest in two seasons.
This early season turnaround has been emphatic and due to a multitude of factors, which we’ll outline below.
Offense
Team – Shooting wasn’t the problem in the first five games, but scoring sure was. This is one of the most obvious turnarounds during the five-game win streak.
The Falcons scored nine goals (seven in one game at Canisius) in the first five. They were shut out twice and scored one against DU and CC. During the win streak, they’ve gone for two and then four in four consecutive games (3.6 goals per game). Those 18 goals raised their goals per game average to 2.7, which is 37th in Division I.
Shots on goal have stayed pretty level. In the first five, AFA had 140 shots on goal (28 per game); since it’s 149 (29.8). That could mean one of two things: the Falcons either were doing more things right during the first five games than the scores would indicate, or many of their shots were coming from sub-prime areas. It’s probably a combination of both.
Since then, they’ve driven the net more and been more willing to battle for rebounds, things on display repeatedly this past weekend against Bentley.
Trevor Stone and the rest of the Falcons forwards displayed a strong drive. Photo courtesy of Russ Backer and Air Force Athletics
Individual – As we detailed last week, more players have gotten involved offensively since Game 1 vs. Niagara. In the first five games, 11 players had points, but only five had two or more, four of whom were seniors.
Since then, six more players have hit the scoresheet and 10 have three or more points. And of the early big five only freshman Kieran Durgan, who has a point in every game during the win streak, has been on a tear.
Consider this about the other four: senior Evan Feno has two goals but has missed two of the past five games due to a suspension and a lower-body injury, and senior Matt Koch has three assists and missed a game due to a lower-body injury. Koch has eight points and Feno and Durgan have seven. The other two seniors were forwards Evan Giesler and Serratore. Gielser, who scored in both games vs. Bentley, has one other point during the run, and Serratore hasn’t played since the third game because of injury.
The list of individuals who have come on strong in the past five games is long. Sophomore defenseman Jake Levin has five assists; his D partner, fellow sophomore Alex Mehnert has four of his five helpers then. Haak and sophomore forward Walker Sommer each have two goals and two assists. Junior center Brady Tomlak and sophomore defenseman Zack Mirageas each have three points. Junior forwards Matt Pulver and Trevor Stone each have scored twice. You get the idea.
Defense
Team – The defensive improvement has been even better. After getting blown out three times in the first five games and allowing three or more goals in four of the five (three of which were losses), the Falcons have done an about face.
They’ve been a model of consistency since. Look at the goals allowed – one, two, two, two and one (1.6 gpg average). The shots allowed per game decreased only slightly (from 25.6 per game to 23.8), but the Falcons have done a much better job limiting the quality chances, especially odd-man rushes. While the young defense has made dramatic improvements at limiting foes to a lot of one-and-dones in the zone, the back pressure from the forwards also has been a key.
At 2.8 goals allowed per game, Air Force has risen to a tie for 26th nationally.
Clearly the coaching staff’s lessons are being adhered to more closely, and clearly the entire team is buying into team defense more.
Shot blocks are down (10.6 to 8.6), likely because they haven’t been needed as much.
Sophomore Zach LaRocque won his first two NCAA starts to help Air Force extend its roll to five games. Photo courtesy of Paat Kelly and Air Force Athletics
Goaltending – Expectations were high for senior Billy Christopoulos coming into the season, and justifiably so. He was the Falcons’ rock last season during their run to the NCAA Tournament’s elite eight. So his early struggles were mildly puzzling.
However, he rose to the challenge in the second Niagara game, stopping 34 shots, and was very good at Army. Then he came down with an illness last weekend, forcing Zach LaRocque to make his first two NCAA starts.
The sophomore fared well, allowing just three goals all weekend against Bentley. He was helped by a ridiculously stingy team defense, which allowed just 30 shots on goal in the series, very few of which came uncontested.
Special teams
When the wheels come off a hockey team, this is typically one of the culprits. Yet that wasn’t the case during the first five games. Air Force’s power play was at 19.2 percent (28th in D-I) and it’s penalty kills was effective 81.8 percent of the time (26th).
Add those numbers up and you get 101, and anything over 100 is considered at least acceptable in D-I.
The Falcons also improved those numbers in the next five games. The power play hit at a 23.8 percent rate (21.3 overall and 23rd in D-I) and the penalty kill surged to 86.3 (84.1 now, 16th). The 110.1 overall number is excellent.
Intangibles
The only meaningful statistic that has plummeted during the streak is face-offs, which often is a calling card of the Falcons.
During the first four games, Air Force won 53.7 percent of them. In the past five, it was 49.1.
The other thing of note is how much the Falcons have grown from last season’s injury woes. Key cogs Serratore, Feno and Christopoulos have missed multiple games already. Koch and Haak missed a game. Swiss Army knife Joe Tryan has missed four games. Center Erich Jaeger has only played in two games. Max Harper hasn’t played. That’s 35 man games missed already and the Falcons are 6-4.
The final word
College hockey is so tight – not a week goes by without Falcons coach Frank Serratore mentioning that. There inevitably will be peaks and valleys in the season for Air Force, but if the past five games have shown us anything, it’s that it has discovered a formula that can help it win a lot of games moving forward.
©First Line Editorial 2017-18
